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Politics · 30 markets

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Vol total$786
Vol 24h$786
Liquidity$4K
Resolves31d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first30 questions

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 29, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 3?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 4, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 4?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 5, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 28, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 2?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 3, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 5?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 6, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 12, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 10?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 11, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 12?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 13, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 9, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 13?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 14, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 15, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 20, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 7?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 8, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 30, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 16?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 17, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 16, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 22, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 27, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 18, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 18?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 19, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 31, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 21, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 24, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 25, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 26, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 23, 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.