Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit Effectively Banned?

Resolution rules

Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.