Politics · Ends Dec 31

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Most likely: December 31, 2026 at 7% (up 2.5 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

7%chance of Yes, according to the market▲ 3 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 7% → if it happens you get $142.86 (+$132.86). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$2.2M traded since it opened · $1K today