Economy · 9 markets

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Vol total$15K

Vol 24h$543

Liquidity$8K

Resolves108d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

Below 4.10%

$6K vol·-12%·7d

11.5%

chance

Yes 12¢ · No 89¢

🎯

Below 4.35%

$2K vol·-23%·7d

34.5%

chance

Yes 35¢ · No 66¢

🎯

Below 4.00%

$1K vol·-9%·7d

8.5%

chance

Yes 9¢ · No 92¢

🎯

Below 4.20%

$1K vol·-28%·7d

8.2%

chance

Yes 8¢ · No 92¢

🎯

Below 4.45%

$1K vol·-41%·7d

33.5%

chance

Yes 34¢ · No 67¢

🎯

Below 4.40%

$1K vol·-31%·7d

38.0%

chance

Yes 38¢ · No 62¢

🎯

Below 4.30%

$907 vol·-36%·7d

15.0%

chance

Yes 15¢ · No 85¢

🎯

Below 4.50%

$666 vol·-56%·7d

27.5%

chance

Yes 28¢ · No 73¢

🎯

Below 4.25%

$363 vol·-28%·7d

14.5%

chance

Yes 14¢ · No 86¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).