Economy · Ends Dec 31

How low will the 5-year Treasury yield fall before 2027?

Each answer is its own question: Yes if the 5-year Treasury yield falls below that level on any date through Dec 31, 2026.

On Polymarket as “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”

What do you think happens?

Each line is its own yes-or-no question.

Below 4.70%▲ 21 today

Below 4.65%▲ 14 today

Below 4.60%▲ 12 today

Below 4.55%▲ 13 today

Below 4.50%▲ 14 today

Below 4.45%▲ 1 today

Below 4.40%▲ 1 today

Below 4.35%▲ 7 today

Below 4.30%▲ 6 today

Below 4.25%

Below 4.20%

Below 4.10%

Below 4.00%

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “Below 4.70%” at 83% → if it happens you get $12.05 (+$2.05). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (5 Yr column) settles it, as soon as a qualifying value appears. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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