Economy · 9 markets

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Vol total$34K

Vol 24h$6K

Liquidity$18K

Resolves16d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

Below 4.76%

$11K vol·-64%·7d

10.0%

chance

Yes 10¢ · No 90¢

🎯

Below 4.70%

$8K vol·-46%·7d

3.5%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Below 4.64%

$3K vol·-35%·7d

5.0%

chance

Yes 5¢ · No 95¢

🎯

Below 4.73%

$3K vol·-54%·7d

6.5%

chance

Yes 7¢ · No 94¢

🎯

Below 4.61%

$3K vol·-22%·7d

2.9%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Below 4.67%

$2K vol·-38%·7d

2.8%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Below 4.45%

$2K vol·-9%·7d

2.6%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Below 4.51%

$682 vol·-13%·7d

2.5%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Below 4.56%

$2K vol·-18%·7d

1.8%

chance

Yes 2¢ · No 98¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).