Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Economy · 5 markets
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Most likely: 5.0% at 5%, then 5.5% at 2% and 10.0% at 2%.
$564K traded · $552 in 24h · $25K liquidity · resolves in 169 days (bls.gov)
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first5 questions
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.