Economy · Ends Dec 31

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Most likely: 5.40% at 80% (down 4.5 points in 24 hours), then 5.50% at 72% and 5.60% at 55%.

What do you think happens?

Each line is its own yes-or-no question.

5.40%▼ 5 today

5.50%▲ 10 today

5.60%

5.70%▼ 3 today

5.80%▲ 3 today

5.90%

6.00%

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “5.40%” at 80% → if it happens you get $12.50 (+$2.50). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (home.treasury.gov) when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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