Politics · Ends Nov 30

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

Most likely: November 30 at 57% (up 6.5 points in 24 hours), then October 31 at 8%.

What do you think happens?

Each line is its own yes-or-no question.

November 30▲ 7 today

October 31▼ 3 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “November 30” at 57% → if it happens you get $17.54 (+$7.54). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result. Each answer closes on its own date, shown when you pick it.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

$137K traded since it opened · $818 today