All events
Politics · 2 markets

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

Vol total$29K
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$49K
Resolves17d

Outcomes · most likely first

🍂
September 30
$17K vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
September 15
$12K vol
1.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. Seize control refers to Houthi forces taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of any damage that occurs. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Houthi forces. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying seizure will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence of the incident, whether the incident qualifies as a seizure, whether the ship was an oil tanker or commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo, or the attribution of the seizure to Houthi forces, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the seizure, and of the ship's status as an oil tanker or commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo, based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the seizure. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the seizure, or as to the ship's status, the incident will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.