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Politics · Ends Dec 31

Houthis enter Aden by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 18% (up 1.0 points in 24 hours), then November 30 at 8% and October 31 at <1%.

What do you think happens?

Each line is its own yes-or-no question.

December 31▲ 1 today
November 30
Show 1 more under 1%
October 31

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “December 31” at 18% → if it happens you get $57.14 (+$47.14). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result. Each answer closes on its own date, shown when you pick it.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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