All events
Politics · 13 markets

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

Vol total$1K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$2K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 19
$414 vol
43.5%
chance
Yes 44¢ · No 56¢
🎯
September 20
$246 vol
48.5%
chance
Yes 49¢ · No 52¢
🎯
September 24
$211 vol
22.5%
chance
Yes 23¢ · No 78¢
🎯
September 29
$140 vol
21.5%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 79¢
🎯
September 18
$100 vol
36.0%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 64¢
🎯
September 23
$80 vol
48.0%
chance
Yes 48¢ · No 52¢
🎯
September 21
$40 vol
29.5%
chance
Yes 30¢ · No 71¢
🎯
September 28
$36 vol
44.0%
chance
Yes 44¢ · No 56¢
🎯
September 22
$20 vol
27.0%
chance
Yes 27¢ · No 73¢
🎯
September 25
$0 vol
47.0%
chance
Yes 47¢ · No 53¢
🎯
September 26
$0 vol
47.0%
chance
Yes 47¢ · No 53¢
🎯
September 27
$0 vol
47.5%
chance
Yes 48¢ · No 53¢
🍂
September 30
$0 vol
48.5%
chance
Yes 49¢ · No 52¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.

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