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Climate · 11 markets

Highest temperature in Madrid on September 4?

Vol total$5K
Vol 24h$5K
Liquidity$42K
Resolves2d

Outcomes · most likely first

🌡️
38°C
$1K vol
17.5%
chance
Yes 18¢ · No 83¢
🌡️
39°C
$928 vol
56.0%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 44¢
🔥
40°C
$815 vol
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
🌡️
37°C
$402 vol
3.0%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🌡️
36°C
$452 vol
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🌡️
35°C
$390 vol
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
33°C or below
$341 vol
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
42°C
$248 vol
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
43°C or higher
$226 vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌡️
34°C
$194 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔥
41°C
$166 vol
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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