Politics · Ends Dec 31

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 5% (down 1.0 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

5%chance of Yes, according to the market▼ 1 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 5% → if it happens you get $200.00 (+$190.00). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$310K traded since it opened · $757 today