🎯Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
Other · 7 markets
GOP Black vote share?
Vol total$3K
Vol 24h$409
Liquidity$54K
Resolves43d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first7 questions
🎯Will Republicans win 8–9% of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
🎯Will Republicans win 12–13% of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
🎯Will Republicans win 14–15% of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
🎯Will Republicans win 18% or more of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
🎯Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
🎯Will Republicans win 16–17% of the Black vote?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 7, 2026.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.