All events
Tech & AI · 5 markets

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Vol total$211K
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$26K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
August 31
$51K vol·+1%·7d
2.3%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🍂
September 30
$49K vol·-5%·7d
19.5%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 81¢
🎯
September 15
$16 vol
8.0%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🎃
October 31
$0 vol
59.5%
chance
Yes 60¢ · No 41¢
🎯
November 30
$0 vol
51.5%
chance
Yes 52¢ · No 49¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.