Politics · Ends Dec 31

John Fetterman out by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 5% (up 0.3 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

5%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 5% → if it happens you get $190.48 (+$180.48). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$142K traded since it opened · $3K today