Tech & AI · 5 markets

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Vol total$223K

Vol 24h$435

Liquidity$4K

Resolves88d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first5 questions

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".