Tech & AI · 7 markets
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Vol total$144K
Vol 24h$20
Liquidity$8K
Resolves134d
Outcomes · most likely first
🎯
↑ 1550
$49K vol·-5%·7d
11.0%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🎯
↑ 1600
$23K vol
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🎯
↑ 1700
$9K vol·-0%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🎯
↑ 1650
$9K vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🎯
↑ 1520
$8K vol·+6%·7d
61.5%
chance
Yes 62¢ · No 39¢
🎯
↑ 1530
$8K vol·-7%·7d
26.5%
chance
Yes 27¢ · No 74¢
🎯
↑ 1540
$1K vol·-5%·7d
16.0%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 84¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".