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Politics · 2 markets

Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?

Vol total$108K
Vol 24h$546
Liquidity$24K
Resolves0d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first2 questions

🎯Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Sep 21, 2026.

🎯Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?decided · Yes

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Sep 21, 2026.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

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