All predictions

Politics · Ends Nov 3
Which party will win Arizona's 1st district House seat?
Arizona's 1st congressional district House seat is decided in the Nov 3, 2026 midterm election, and only one party's candidate can win.
On Polymarket as “AZ-01 House Election Winner”
What do you think happens?
Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.
Amish Shah (Democrat) wins▼ 4 today
Jay Feely (Republican) wins▲ 3 today
Your money, explained
Put $10 on “Amish Shah (Democrat) wins” at 79% → if it happens you get $12.74 (+$2.74). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
Settled by a consensus of credible reporting on the election result, or if unclear, by official results from the Federal Election Commission. Source ↗
Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
$142K traded since it opened · $46K today
