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Politics · 5 markets

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Vol total$464
Vol 24h$464
Liquidity$3K
Resolves31d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first5 questions

Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

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