🎃Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.
Politics · 2 markets
Another NATO article 4 by...?
Vol total$174K
Vol 24h$424
Liquidity$34K
Resolves89d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first2 questions
🎆Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.