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Politics · binary

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Vol total$89K
Vol 24h$407
Liquidity$17K
Resolves7d

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Prediction

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Your pick: Yes — each share pays $1 if Yes wins.

Bets from $1 · deposits start at $3.

SideYes
Price$0.0055
Shares (est)909.09
Spend$5.00
Capital back$5.00
Profit if Yes wins+$904.09
If Yes wins pays$909.09
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Price history-0.10% · 1W
0%1%2%2%3%Aug 19Aug 20Aug 21Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.