Climate · Ends Feb 28

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

The market gives “Yes” a 14% chance (down 3.5 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

14%chance of Yes, according to the market▼ 4 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 14% → if it happens you get $74.07 (+$64.07). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (cneos.jpl.nasa.gov) when the question closes on Feb 28, 2027, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

$316K traded since it opened · $742 today