All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Vol total$48K
Vol 24h$729
Liquidity$15K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

👥
Meta
$12K vol·-5%·7d
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$11K vol·-18%·7d
39.0%
chance
Yes 39¢ · No 61¢
🔍
Google
$9K vol·+28%·7d
40.5%
chance
Yes 41¢ · No 60¢
🌙
Moonshot
$2K vol·-0%·7d
4.0%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🧠
OpenAI
$1K vol·-3%·7d
4.1%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🍜
Meituan
$1K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Anthropic
$1K vol·-1%·7d
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🪟
Microsoft
$1K vol·-2%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🤖
Z.ai
$993 vol·+0%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$957 vol·+0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔎
Baidu
$936 vol·+0%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$881 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$851 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$830 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$774 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📦
Amazon
$576 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$565 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$564 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🟢
Nvidia
$557 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$527 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$474 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".