All events
Climate · 7 markets

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$393
Resolves33d

Outcomes · most likely first

🗽
New York (NYISO)
$677 vol·-17%·7d
24.0%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 76¢
🌽
Midwest (MISO)
$623 vol·-21%·7d
22.0%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 78¢
⛰️
Central US (SPP)
$261 vol·-18%·7d
20.5%
chance
Yes 21¢ · No 80¢
Texas (ERCOT)
$261 vol·-16%·7d
24.0%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 76¢
🌞
California (CAISO)
$80 vol·-22%·7d
18.0%
chance
Yes 18¢ · No 82¢
🍂
New England (ISO-NE)
$60 vol·-12%·7d
24.5%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 76¢
🏛️
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
$40 vol
43.0%
chance
Yes 43¢ · No 57¢

Resolution rules

This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes". Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify in any market. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify in any market. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

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