Politics · binary

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Vol total$1.9M

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$109K

Resolves42d

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Prediction

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Your pick: Yes — each share pays $1 if Yes wins.

Spend (USDC)

Bets from $1 · deposits start at $3.

SideYes

Price$0.0085

Shares (est)588.24

Spend$5.00

Capital back$5.00

Profit if Yes wins+$583.24

If Yes wins pays$588.24

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Price history-0.50% · 1W

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.