All events
Politics · 24 markets

Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?

Vol total$46K
Vol 24h$384
Liquidity$9K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇺🇸
Candace Owens
$8K vol·-18%·7d
32.5%
chance
Yes 33¢ · No 68¢
🇺🇸
Alex Jones
$4K vol·-3%·7d
17.0%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 83¢
🇻🇦
Pope Leo XIV
$3K vol·-1%·7d
2.8%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇺🇸
Tucker Carlson
$3K vol·-12%·7d
35.0%
chance
Yes 35¢ · No 65¢
🇺🇸
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$2K vol·-26%·7d
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🇺🇸
Elon Musk
$2K vol·-2%·7d
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇺
Vladimir Putin
$2K vol·-4%·7d
3.3%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Emmanuel Macron
$1K vol·-7%·7d
14.0%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🇬🇧
Andy Burnham
$1K vol·-30%·7d
21.0%
chance
Yes 21¢ · No 79¢
🇺🇸
Norah O'Donnell
$1K vol·+2%·7d
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🇺🇸
Megyn Kelly
$1K vol·-2%·7d
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🇺🇸
Kaitlan Collins
$919 vol·-7%·7d
40.5%
chance
Yes 41¢ · No 60¢
🎯
Friedrich Merz
$845 vol·+19%·7d
31.0%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
J.D. Vance
$765 vol·-0%·7d
2.4%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇮🇱
Benjamin Netanyahu
$401 vol·-12%·7d
4.8%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇺🇸
Zohran Mamdani
$193 vol·+17%·7d
40.0%
chance
Yes 40¢ · No 60¢
🎯
Jimmy Kimmel
$181 vol·-16%·7d
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🇺🇸
Jerome Powell
$116 vol
25.0%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 75¢
🇸🇦
Mohammed bin Salman
$32 vol·-32%·7d
2.7%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇭🇺
Viktor Orbán
$0 vol·-3%·7d
3.9%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇸🇮
Melania Trump
$3K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇨🇳
Xi Jinping
$1K vol·-0%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇺🇸
Kevin Warsh
$692 vol·-7%·7d
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇺🇸
Pam Bondi
$138 vol·-21%·7d
1.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.