All events
Tech & AI · 10 markets

Which week will OpenAI release Astra?

Vol total$1K
Vol 24h$826
Liquidity$13K
Resolves62d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 21–27
$319 vol·-30%·7d
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🎯
September 14–20
$118 vol·-14%·7d
24.5%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 76¢
🎯
September 28–October 4
$104 vol·-32%·7d
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🎯
September 7–13
$61 vol·-15%·7d
25.0%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 75¢
🎯
Not released by November 1
$52 vol·-21%·7d
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🎯
October 5–11
$44 vol·-24%·7d
13.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 87¢
🎯
August 31–September 6
$35 vol·-20%·7d
18.5%
chance
Yes 19¢ · No 82¢
🎯
October 19–25
$32 vol·-31%·7d
8.0%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🎯
October 26–November 1
$32 vol·-23%·7d
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🎯
October 12–18
$30 vol·-25%·7d
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

Resolution rules

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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