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Politics · 10 markets

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Vol total$8K
Vol 24h$320
Liquidity$52K
Resolves496d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇺🇸
Ted Cruz
$5K vol·-6%·7d
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🇺🇸
Rand Paul
$998 vol·-9%·7d
30.6%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
Donald Trump
$894 vol·-5%·7d
7.3%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🇺🇸
Marco Rubio
$419 vol·-1%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇺🇸
J.D. Vance
$404 vol·-2%·7d
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🇺🇸
Vivek Ramaswamy
$269 vol·+0%·7d
14.2%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🇺🇸
Ron DeSantis
$195 vol·+3%·7d
14.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🇺🇸
Donald Trump Jr.
$166 vol·-0%·7d
5.9%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇺🇸
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$140 vol·-0%·7d
21.9%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 78¢
🇺🇸
Glenn Youngkin
$197 vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.