All events
Politics · 19 markets

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Vol total$4.9M
Vol 24h$36K
Liquidity$795K
Resolves43d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
No Meeting by September 30
$831K vol·+21%·7d
75.1%
chance
Yes 75¢ · No 25¢
🇶🇦
Qatar
$645K vol·-5%·7d
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🇨🇭
Switzerland
$487K vol·-5%·7d
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🇴🇲
Oman
$373K vol·-3%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇵🇰
Pakistan
$284K vol·-8%·7d
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🌍
Other
$606K vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇦🇹
Austria
$275K vol·-1%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇮🇷
Iran
$196K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇷🇺
Russia
$190K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇰🇿
Kazakhstan
$183K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇮🇹
Italy
$137K vol
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Other - Middle East/North Africa
$109K vol·+0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇮🇶
Iraq
$102K vol·+0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇦🇪
UAE
$89K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
$85K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Other - Europe
$82K vol·+0%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇹🇷
Turkey
$77K vol·+0%·7d
0.8%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇪🇬
Egypt
$74K vol·+0%·7d
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 100¢
🇺🇸
USA
$68K vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.