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Culture · 6 markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Vol total$3.3M
Vol 24h$649
Liquidity$154K
Resolves134d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
1
$572K vol·+5%·7d
75.0%
chance
Yes 75¢ · No 25¢
🎯
3
$497K vol·+0%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
2
$394K vol·-8%·7d
21.5%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 79¢
🎯
5
$821K vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
6 or lower
$534K vol·-1%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
4
$513K vol·+0%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.