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Culture · 6 markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Vol total$3.6M
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$284K
Resolves150d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first6 questions

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 2, 2027.

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 2, 2027.

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 2, 2027.

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 2, 2027.

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 2, 2027.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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