All events
Culture · 12 markets

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6)

Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$4K
Resolves11d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇯🇵
Japan
$850 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
😨
Fear
$276 vol
70.5%
chance
Yes 71¢ · No 30¢
🎉
Party
$201 vol
36.0%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 64¢
🏆
Gold
$124 vol
23.0%
chance
Yes 23¢ · No 77¢
🌍
Earthquake / Quake
$110 vol
22.0%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 78¢
👩
Woman
$105 vol
34.0%
chance
Yes 34¢ · No 66¢
🤖
AI / Artificial Intelligence
$87 vol
97.9%
chance
Yes 98¢ · No 2¢
🇺🇦
Ukraine / Ukrainian
$31 vol
88.5%
chance
Yes 89¢ · No 12¢
🛢️
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
$0 vol
85.5%
chance
Yes 86¢ · No 14¢
🔥
Hot / Heat
$0 vol
60.5%
chance
Yes 61¢ · No 40¢
🇪🇸
Spain
$0 vol
20.0%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 80¢
🇺🇸
Trump
$197 vol
99.2%
chance
Yes 99¢ · No 1¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between August 31 and September 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.