Climate · 6 markets

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?

Vol total$251

Vol 24h$233

Liquidity$17

Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

0 states

$59 vol·+4%·7d

49.5%

chance

Yes 50¢ · No 51¢

🎯

5-6 states

$48 vol·+3%·7d

49.5%

chance

Yes 50¢ · No 51¢

🎯

3-4 states

$47 vol·+7%·7d

49.5%

chance

Yes 50¢ · No 51¢

🎯

1-2 states

$41 vol·+6%·7d

50.5%

chance

Yes 51¢ · No 50¢

🎯

7-9 states

$41 vol·+3%·7d

49.5%

chance

Yes 50¢ · No 51¢

🎯

10 or more states

$15 vol·+8%·7d

52.4%

chance

Yes 52¢ · No 48¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.