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Climate · 4 markets

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Vol total$523
Vol 24h$523
Liquidity$951
Resolves32d

Outcomes · most likely first

🔥
1st hottest
$273 vol
26.5%
chance
Yes 27¢ · No 74¢
❄️
4th or lower
$250 vol
14.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🌡️
2nd hottest
$0 vol
63.0%
chance
Yes 63¢ · No 37¢
☀️
3rd hottest
$0 vol
32.0%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 68¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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