All events
Politics · 23 markets

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Vol total$668K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$102K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇱🇧
Lebanese Forces (LF)
$168K vol
0.2%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
$81K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Amal Movement (Amal)
$64K vol·-1%·7d
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇱🇧
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
$55K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Hezbollah (Hezb)
$53K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
$47K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Dignity Movement (DM)
$29K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Mada Party (Mada)
$28K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
$14K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Taqaddom Party
$12K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
$11K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
$11K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
ReLebanon
$10K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
National Liberal Party (NLP)
$10K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Khatt Ahmar
$9K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
$9K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
$9K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Independence Movement (IM)
$9K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Marada Movement (MM)
$9K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Islamic Group (IG)
$9K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Union Party (UP)
$8K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Watani Alliance (Watani)
$8K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇱🇧
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
$7K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.