All events
Climate · 9 markets

How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?

Vol total$3K
Vol 24h$244
Liquidity$3K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
60-79
$616 vol·+9%·7d
29.5%
chance
Yes 30¢ · No 71¢
🎯
80-99
$364 vol·+8%·7d
30.0%
chance
Yes 30¢ · No 70¢
🎯
200+
$291 vol·+9%·7d
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🎯
40–59
$272 vol·-1%·7d
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🎯
100–119
$257 vol·-1%·7d
18.5%
chance
Yes 19¢ · No 82¢
🎯
140-169
$253 vol·-7%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
120–139
$52 vol·+4%·7d
16.2%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 84¢
🧒
<40
$258 vol·-17%·7d
1.9%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
170–199
$157 vol·-19%·7d
1.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.