Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Tech & AI · 8 markets
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Vol total$520K
Vol 24h$524
Liquidity$16K
Resolves89d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first8 questions
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.