Tech & AI · 8 markets

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Vol total$493K

Vol 24h$200

Liquidity$12K

Resolves132d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

7-8

$159K vol·-5%·7d

4.0%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

🎯

5-6

$114K vol·+1%·7d

57.5%

chance

Yes 57¢ · No 43¢

🎯

$99K vol·+2%·7d

33.5%

chance

Yes 34¢ · No 67¢

🎯

9-10

$62K vol·+0%·7d

3.1%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

11-12

$8K vol·-0%·7d

2.3%

chance

Yes 2¢ · No 98¢

🎯

15-16

$30K vol·-0%·7d

0.3%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

🎯

>16

$13K vol·-1%·7d

0.5%

chance

Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

🎯

13-14

$9K vol

0.3%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.