All events
Politics · 5 markets

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?

Vol total$21K
Vol 24h$21K
Liquidity$2K
Resolves9d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
230+
$13K vol
25.0%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 75¢
🎯
210-229
$9K vol
29.0%
chance
Yes 29¢ · No 71¢
🎯
<170
$0 vol
26.0%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 74¢
🎯
170-189
$0 vol
34.5%
chance
Yes 35¢ · No 66¢
🎯
190-209
$0 vol
25.0%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 75¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.