Politics · 7 markets

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Vol total$46K

Vol 24h$560

Liquidity$27K

Resolves11d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

20–23

$10K vol·-1%·7d

43.3%

chance

Yes 43¢ · No 57¢

🎯

24–27

$8K vol·-4%·7d

35.5%

chance

Yes 36¢ · No 65¢

🎯

32–35

$5K vol·+1%·7d

2.3%

chance

Yes 2¢ · No 98¢

🎯

28–31

$2K vol·+1%·7d

5.7%

chance

Yes 6¢ · No 94¢

🎯

40+

$2K vol·+4%·7d

4.5%

chance

Yes 5¢ · No 95¢

🎯

<20

$18K vol·-0%·7d

1.1%

chance

Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

🎯

36–39

$1K vol·-0%·7d

0.2%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.