All events
Climate · 4 markets

How low will Lake Mead drop?

Vol total$210
Vol 24h$100
Liquidity$2K
Resolves238d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
Below 1,028 ft
$70 vol
44.5%
chance
Yes 45¢ · No 56¢
🎯
1,028–1,033 ft
$60 vol
14.0%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
Above 1,038 ft
$40 vol
11.0%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🎯
1,033–1,038 ft
$40 vol
20.0%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 80¢

Resolution rules

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.