All events
Politics · 16 markets

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Vol total$244K
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$35K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
August 17
$7K vol·+21%·7d
26.7%
chance
Yes 27¢ · No 73¢
🎯
August 21
$5K vol·+2%·7d
5.9%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
August 31
$3K vol·-1%·7d
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🎯
August 20
$3K vol·-1%·7d
4.6%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
August 19
$3K vol·+3%·7d
14.2%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
August 25
$2K vol·+3%·7d
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
August 30
$2K vol·+3%·7d
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
August 29
$2K vol·+7%·7d
14.1%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
August 23
$2K vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🎯
August 27
$2K vol·-1%·7d
4.6%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
August 24
$1K vol·+1%·7d
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
August 28
$1K vol·-3%·7d
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
August 18
$1K vol·+30%·7d
36.0%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 64¢
🎯
August 26
$370 vol·-1%·7d
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🎯
August 22
$207 vol·+4%·7d
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🎯
August 16
$3K vol·-6%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.