All events
Tech & AI · 4 markets

Grok 5 released by...?

Vol total$6K
Vol 24h$330
Liquidity$6K
Resolves131d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎆
December 31
$2K vol·+10%·7d
62.5%
chance
Yes 63¢ · No 38¢
🎃
October 31
$340 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🎯
November 30
$0 vol
50.0%
chance
Yes 50¢ · No 50¢
🎯
August 31
$3K vol·+0%·7d
0.8%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.