All events
Tech & AI · 7 markets

GPT-6 released by…?

Vol total$1.4M
Vol 24h$36K
Liquidity$68K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 30, 2026
$234K vol·-31%·7d
26.0%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 74¢
🎯
August 31, 2026
$223K vol·-10%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
December 31, 2026
$140K vol·-6%·7d
79.0%
chance
Yes 79¢ · No 21¢
🎯
October 31, 2026
$775 vol
56.0%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 44¢
🎯
September 15, 2026
$153 vol
17.0%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 83¢
🎯
November 30, 2026
$0 vol
59.0%
chance
Yes 59¢ · No 41¢
🎯
August 21, 2026
$147K vol·-5%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.