Culture · 5 markets

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie

Vol total$53K

Vol 24h$442

Liquidity$4K

Resolves27d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

Riz Ahmed – “Bait”

$24K vol·+5%·7d

12.5%

chance

Yes 13¢ · No 88¢

🎯

Jason Bateman – “Black Rabbit”

$10K vol·+1%·7d

5.1%

chance

Yes 5¢ · No 95¢

🎯

Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me”

$9K vol·-4%·7d

18.0%

chance

Yes 18¢ · No 82¢

🎯

Oscar Isaac – “Beef”

$7K vol·-1%·7d

58.5%

chance

Yes 59¢ · No 42¢

🎯

Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”

$2K vol·+1%·7d

3.8%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

Resolution rules

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.