All events
Politics · 8 markets

Berlin State Election: 4th Place

Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$21K
Resolves31d

Outcomes · most likely first

🟢
Grüne
$1K vol
48.5%
chance
Yes 49¢ · No 52¢
🟡
FW
$68 vol
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇩🇪
FDP
$61 vol
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🇩🇪
CDU
$20 vol
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🇩🇪
AfD
$20 vol
16.0%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 84¢
🇩🇪
SPD
$20 vol
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢
🔴
Linke
$20 vol
15.0%
chance
Yes 15¢ · No 85¢
🇩🇪
BSW
$20 vol
14.0%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)