Climate · 6 markets

August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)

Vol total$1K

Vol 24h$165

Liquidity$5K

Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

1.34–1.37ºC

$579 vol

23.5%

chance

Yes 24¢ · No 77¢

🎯

1.42–1.45ºC

$335 vol

37.5%

chance

Yes 38¢ · No 63¢

🎯

1.30–1.33ºC

$303 vol

5.1%

chance

Yes 5¢ · No 95¢

🎯

>1.45ºC

$61 vol

13.5%

chance

Yes 14¢ · No 87¢

🎯

<1.30ºC

$22 vol

3.5%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 97¢

🎯

1.38–1.41ºC

$0 vol

35.5%

chance

Yes 36¢ · No 65¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.