Climate · 6 markets

August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Vol total$14K

Vol 24h$190

Liquidity$8K

Resolves9d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

>1.29ºC

$6K vol·+3%·7d

99.1%

chance

Yes 99¢ · No 1¢

🎯

1.25–1.29ºC

$3K vol·-3%·7d

0.7%

chance

Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

🎯

1.20–1.24ºC

$2K vol·-0%·7d

0.2%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

🎯

1.15–1.19ºC

$1K vol

0.1%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

🎯

1.10–1.14ºC

$999 vol

0.1%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

🎯

<1.10ºC

$877 vol

0.1%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.