All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)

Vol total$33K
Vol 24h$155
Liquidity$8K
Resolves43d

Outcomes · most likely first

🧠
OpenAI
$8K vol·+5%·7d
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
👥
Meta
$5K vol·+17%·7d
47.5%
chance
Yes 48¢ · No 53¢
🔍
Google
$5K vol·+4%·7d
35.0%
chance
Yes 35¢ · No 65¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$4K vol·-7%·7d
9.0%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🤖
Anthropic
$977 vol·-1%·7d
6.8%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$614 vol·-2%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$1K vol·-1%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$882 vol
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
📦
Amazon
$750 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌙
Moonshot
$734 vol·-0%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$733 vol·-0%·7d
0.2%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🍜
Meituan
$707 vol·-2%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$678 vol·-4%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Z.ai
$666 vol·-3%·7d
1.3%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$623 vol·-3%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔎
Baidu
$623 vol·+1%·7d
1.6%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🪟
Microsoft
$623 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$592 vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🟢
Nvidia
$590 vol·-0%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$494 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$460 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".